Analysis and comparison of the temporal trends of male infertility in China and globally from 1990 to 2021

Análisis y comparación de las tendencias temporales de la infertilidad masculina en China y a nivel mundial desde 1990 hasta 2021

Background: To analyze and compare the prevalence burden, temporal trends, and predictions of male infertility globally and in China. Methods: Data on male infertility in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 were collected, organized, and analyzed using the Global Burden of Disease Study database 2021. The Bayesian Age-Period Cohort model was applied to predict the prevalence burden of male infertility globally and in China over the next 30 years. Results: Over the past 30 years, the global prevalence burden of male infertility has shown an upward trend, while in China, it has remained relatively stable. Among the 21 regions analyzed, 12 exhibited an increasing trend, with the fastest growth rate observed in the Andean-Latin American region. Conversely, five regions experienced a decline, most significant decrease occurring in sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern region. Among the 204 countries, 85 showed a decline in male infertility burden, with Malawi experiencing the fastest reduction in burden. In contrast, 67 countries experienced an upward trend, the Philippines showing the fastest increase in burden. The highest number of male infertility cases, both globally and in China, occurred in the 35–39 age group. As the Socio-demographic index improved, the disease burden of male infertility initially increased but then began to decline. Over the next 30 years, the global burden of male infertility is projected to continue rising, while in China, it is anticipated to decrease. Conclusions: Overall, the global burden of male infertility is generally increasing, with significant regional variations and age-related differences. In China, the situation has been more stable, and the burden is projected to decline, contrary to the global trends. Potential inaccuracies in the data may affect its applicability. The analysis of provinces, subtypes, and risk factors relies on future updates. There is a need for continued attention to relevant policies.

Resumen

Antecedentes: Analizar y comparar la carga de prevalencia, las tendencias temporales y las predicciones de la infertilidad masculina a nivel global y en China. Métodos: Se recopilaron, organizaron y analizaron datos sobre infertilidad masculina en China y a nivel mundial desde 1990 hasta 2021, utilizando la base de datos del Global Burden of Disease Study de 2021. Se aplicó el modelo Bayesiano de Cohorte Edad-Período para predecir la carga de prevalencia de la infertilidad masculina a nivel global y en China durante los próximos 30 años. Resultados: En los últimos 30 años, la carga global de prevalencia de la infertilidad masculina ha mostrado una tendencia al alza, mientras que en China se ha mantenido relativamente estable. De las 21 regiones analizadas, 12 presentaron una tendencia creciente, con la tasa de crecimiento más rápida observada en la región andina de América Latina. Por el contrario, cinco regiones experimentaron una disminución, siendo la más significativa en la región oriental de África subsahariana. Entre los 204 países analizados, 85 mostraron una reducción en la carga de infertilidad masculina, con Malawi experimentando la disminución más rápida. En contraste, 67 países experimentaron una tendencia al alza, destacándose Filipinas con el incremento más acelerado en la carga de infertilidad. A nivel mundial y en China, el mayor número de casos de infertilidad masculina se presentó en el grupo de edad de 35 a 39 años. A medida que el indice Socio-Demográfico mejoró, la carga de la enfermedad de la infertilidad masculina inicialmente aumentó, pero luego comenzó a disminuir. En los próximos 30 años, se proyecta que la carga global de la infertilidad masculina siga aumentando, mientras que en China se anticipa una disminución. Conclusiones: En general, la carga global de la infertilidad masculina muestra una tendencia ascendente, con variaciones significativas según la región y diferencias relacionadas con la edad. En China, la situación ha sido más estable y se proyecta una disminución de la carga, en contraste con las tendencias globales. Posibles inexactitudes en los datos pueden afectar su aplicabilidad. El análisis de provincias, subtipos y factores de riesgo depende de futuras actualizaciones. Se requiere una atención continua a las políticas relevantes.

Male infertility; Global burden of disease; Time trend analysis; Prediction

Palabras Clave

Infertilidad masculina; Carga global de la enfermedad; Análisis de tendencia temporal; Predicción

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